With the tumble of preseason #1 USC out of the national championship and Rose Bowl picture, it only underscored the point that preseason polls are pretty much meaningless. Based on returning starters and reputation, USC was thought to have another loaded national championship-style squad. Turns out they’re a middle-of-the-pack Pac-10 team now. But they’re just the most glaring example of preseason polls gone wrong. Let’s look at the preseason AP top 25, and see exactly how some of these powerhouses on paper actually turned out:
1. USC - It is so not Booty Time. Also, if you have 10 tailbacks, apparently, you have none.
2. LSU - Les Miles was right: you can’t just go through the mighty SEC undefeated. But you know he wasn’t talking about losing to Kentucky.
3. West Virginia - One of the problems with preseason polls is that they often look at the schedule as a factor in their ranking, doing a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy thing that seems unfair. And foolish, as that walkover with some school named “South Florida” never quite materialized. But they are still in a good position to win the Big East.
4. Texas - Well, Colt McCoy was back, along with many of Texas’ skill players. But the offensive line has proved to be a bit problematic, along with their Cincinnati Bengals impersonation.
5. Michigan - The loss to Oregon is looking more and more respectable. Their other loss, though…
6. Florida - They’ve looked like they could repeat at times, but blew the lead against LSU, got stoned by Auburn, and Georgia killed their title hopes. Tim Tebow is great, but having a running back run the ball occasionally is not a bad idea.
7. Wisconsin - Knew they weren’t any good when they struggled against UNLV on Versus. What was I doing watching Versus, you ask? Every Saturday night can’t be a winner.
8. Oklahoma - Have been solid except for that hiccup against Colorado. But not scoring for three and a half quarters versus Iowa State is not a good sign. Still, this is the first team on this list to be pretty close to their current ranking.
9. Virginia Tech - Got killed by LSU, but clawed their way back to number 8 before BC’s miracle comeback. Another winner for the AP voters!
10. Louisville - The offense is back! The defense is not!
11. Ohio State - Now number 1, all the questions about the Buckeyes centered on their quarterback play and offense. They’ve been just fine. If it wasn’t for everyone being terrified that they will lay another egg in the national title game, they’d be quite the story.
12. California - Soared all the way to number 2, but eventually couldn’t handle the prosperity.
13. Georgia - The Bulldogs are a good, solid, not-quite-championship-level SEC team, and their preseason and current rankings are fairly commensurate with that.
14. UCLA - Michigan West. They appear to be a good team, but they have three horrendous losses, likely sounding the death knell for coach Karl Dorrell. Utah, Washington State last night, and for some reason, this bottom-feeder outfit named Notre Dame.
15. Tennessee - see Georgia, but maybe a little bit worse.
16. Rutgers - In line with expectactions, except for a loss to Maryland.
17. Penn State - A good defense being held back by a mediocre offense.
18. Auburn - Got off to a bad start, but has eventually become one of them dadgum SEC spoilers that hold back national championship programs like LSU and Florida. Helps that they’ve cut down on the turnovers.
19. Florida State - Getting by on their name alone. No quality offensive players, and a pretty decent defense. Blah.
20. Nebraska - It was all good for a while. All of a sudden, they fire the AD, Bill Callahan is a dead man walking, and the season goes down the tubes.
21. Arkansas - Darren McFadden is a great player, but he can’t overcome recorded phone conversations, quarterback defections, and internal turmoil by himself like he can overcome opposing defenses.
22. TCU - They were supposed to be the BCS Buster. Not quite.
23. Hawaii - Perhaps the most disappointing undefeated team in history. Even people who want to champion the cause of a non-BCS school have no faith in Hawaii.
24. Boise State - Still hanging tough, if not making a BCS run like some thought.
25. Texas A&M - Well, maybe if the AP voters had gotten the special Dennis Franchione VIP newsletter, the voters would have known that this was a paper tiger.
The lesson here: There probably shouldn’t be preseason polls. But, I know, I know: how would you hype up early-season matchups and determine who to televise? I guess you could just go by returning starters and name recognition. How wrong could that possibly go?
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October 28th, 2007